Post by account_disabled on Feb 27, 2024 23:48:52 GMT -5
The gurus of the city of Buenos Aires renewed their forecasts for key variables when making investment or savings decisions, such as the projection of the dollar and inflation for 2024. However, the fact that the Government has suffered a resounding failure with The so-called omnibus law does not rule out the possibility of a shock. The REM analysts issued by the Central Bank (BCRA) forecast the nominal exchange rate at per dollar for the average of February per dollar compared to the previous REM). For December, the official exchange rate is expected to rise toimagen.png For its part, for March the exchange rate would be, according to the analysts consulted, at which implies less than the previous measurement. By April , it also corrected lower, $8 higher than the previous REM to the level. It can simply go up from The Market Expectations Survey ( rapid eye movement ) was carried out between January 29 and 31 among 37 participants that included consulting firms, financial entities and local and international research centers. Inflation: what the market thinks will happen The analysts consulted raised their inflation estimate for Argentina for 2024 to 227% from the previously estimated 213%. The measurement occurred after Javier Milei took power in December.
The experts consulted by the central bank expect inflation of 21.9% monthly in January - whose official figure will be announced in the coming days - which would begin to decline moderately in February, to 18% monthly. The figure would be in line with what was reported by the City, which registered 21.7%. The country closed 2023 with Kuwait Mobile Number List an accumulated annual inflation of 211%, according to the Government. Uncertainty in the markets after the fall of the omnibus law After the defeat of the Government in the treatment of an ambitious law called omnibus in Congress, the markets reacted downwards due to doubts about the implementation of its plan to reverse the current economic crisis. The ruling party is considering resubmitting the project or splitting it into separate bills following the lower house's rejection of several crucial proposals, a ruling party lawmaker said. For his part, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, said in statements to LN+ that “what happened yesterday is not dramatic. It is not a big problem" and stated that "the law is for all Argentines, it is to deregulate, it is so that the sector can develop privately.
Milei assumed the presidency last December with the promise of dollarizing the economy, ending inflation of more than 200% annually, eliminating the central bank and cutting privileges to what he calls 'the caste'. The rejected proposal covered reforms in more than 300 regulations and allowed the privatization of public companies and granted special powers to the president, among other points. "This defeat exposes the governance challenges facing the government and obstructs the ambitious plan to reduce the fiscal deficit to zero," JP Morgan said. "Without a clear plan for the future legislative agenda, we believe that this setback will increase political uncertainty and affect the exchange rate gap in the short term, which will have an effect on Argentine stocks and ADRs," he estimated. After opening with losses of more than 5%, the Merval stock index recovered thanks to opportunity purchases and cut its fall to 2.14% by midday. For their part, over-the-counter bonds lost an average of 1.2% in a market without genuine buyers given the uncertainties about the economic future of the third largest economy in Latin America. “We believe market pressure could push the government to demonstrate sooner rather than later that it has a way forward with a revised fiscal package,” Barclays estimated in a report.
The experts consulted by the central bank expect inflation of 21.9% monthly in January - whose official figure will be announced in the coming days - which would begin to decline moderately in February, to 18% monthly. The figure would be in line with what was reported by the City, which registered 21.7%. The country closed 2023 with Kuwait Mobile Number List an accumulated annual inflation of 211%, according to the Government. Uncertainty in the markets after the fall of the omnibus law After the defeat of the Government in the treatment of an ambitious law called omnibus in Congress, the markets reacted downwards due to doubts about the implementation of its plan to reverse the current economic crisis. The ruling party is considering resubmitting the project or splitting it into separate bills following the lower house's rejection of several crucial proposals, a ruling party lawmaker said. For his part, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, said in statements to LN+ that “what happened yesterday is not dramatic. It is not a big problem" and stated that "the law is for all Argentines, it is to deregulate, it is so that the sector can develop privately.
Milei assumed the presidency last December with the promise of dollarizing the economy, ending inflation of more than 200% annually, eliminating the central bank and cutting privileges to what he calls 'the caste'. The rejected proposal covered reforms in more than 300 regulations and allowed the privatization of public companies and granted special powers to the president, among other points. "This defeat exposes the governance challenges facing the government and obstructs the ambitious plan to reduce the fiscal deficit to zero," JP Morgan said. "Without a clear plan for the future legislative agenda, we believe that this setback will increase political uncertainty and affect the exchange rate gap in the short term, which will have an effect on Argentine stocks and ADRs," he estimated. After opening with losses of more than 5%, the Merval stock index recovered thanks to opportunity purchases and cut its fall to 2.14% by midday. For their part, over-the-counter bonds lost an average of 1.2% in a market without genuine buyers given the uncertainties about the economic future of the third largest economy in Latin America. “We believe market pressure could push the government to demonstrate sooner rather than later that it has a way forward with a revised fiscal package,” Barclays estimated in a report.